Preparations for the 2025 Hurricane Season
- Weather Champs
- May 4
- 5 min read
Updated: Jun 7
As the days grow longer and summer approaches, it’s time to focus on the Atlantic hurricane season. This season officially starts on June 1, 2025. Hurricanes can bring powerful winds, heavy rains, and life-altering impacts to coastal communities and beyond. Knowing what’s on the horizon is crucial. Two trusted weather expert teams, one from Colorado State University (CSU) and the other from North Carolina State University (NC State), have released their early predictions for the 2025 season. Spoiler alert: it’s shaping up to be a busy one!
A Look Back at 2024’s Hurricane Season
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season set records, leaving a path of destruction across the U.S. It included 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, marking it as one of the most active and costly seasons ever. Hurricanes Beryl, Helene, and Milton were the heavy hitters. Helene alone caused catastrophic flooding in North Carolina and Georgia, while Milton wreaked havoc in Florida.
According to AccuWeather, the season's total damage and economic loss in the U.S. amounted to a staggering $500 billion. This figure accounts for everything from property damage to job losses, crop failures, and long-term recovery costs. The catastrophic events during this season, which resulted in over 300 deaths, highlight the urgent need to prepare for 2025.
A Busier-Than-Usual Season Ahead
Let’s break down the forecasts in a way that’s clear and straightforward, so you can start preparing for whatever challenges Mother Nature may present. Both CSU and NC State anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than average. To help frame expectations, the normal season (based on data from 1991 to 2020) usually produces about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, with winds exceeding 111 mph).
CSU’s Forecast
The CSU team, led by hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach, is projecting a season with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This is significantly higher than the average, placing 2025 in the “above-average” category. They expect a lot of storm activity, forecasting that Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) will be about 25% higher than usual. This indicates the potential for not only more storms but also longer-lasting or stronger storms.
NC State’s Forecast
On the other hand, NC State, with insights from Professor Lian Xie and his team, takes a more conservative approach, predicting 12 to 15 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major hurricanes. While these figures are lower than CSU's, they still suggest a season that could be eventful. Their forecast leverages advanced machine learning technology to analyze weather patterns, adding a modern twist to their predictions.
Why So Many Storms?
You might wonder what’s causing this uptick in storms. It relates to a few critical factors in the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere. Firstly, ocean temperatures are warmer than usual in many areas, particularly around the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Warmer water serves as fuel for hurricanes, aiding their formation and intensification. Nevertheless, some regions in the eastern Atlantic have cooled due to strong trade winds. This could lead to a slightly calmer season compared to 2024, which had 18 named storms!
Another influential factor is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Currently, we are in a weak La Niña phase, which means we have cooler waters in the Pacific. This setup typically reduces wind shear (disruptive winds that can halt storm development) in the Atlantic, making it easier for hurricanes to form. Both CSU and NC State anticipate that La Niña might transition to a “neutral” state by the peak season (August to October). There exists a chance it may linger, possibly increasing storm activity even more. The good news? El Niño, which tends to diminish storm activity, is unlikely to appear.
What This Means for You
With CSU expecting 17 named storms and NC State forecasting 12 to 15, it's likely that coastal areas, especially in the U.S. and Caribbean, will experience the impact of at least one storm. CSU reports a 51% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast, compared to a 43% average. Similarly, there's a 56% chance a major hurricane will pass through the Caribbean. NC State emphasizes North Carolina’s risk, with a 75% chance the state will experience at least one tropical cyclone (a named storm or stronger). Whether you’re in Florida, Louisiana, or the Carolinas, remember that it only takes one storm to create a memorable hurricane season.
How They Make These Predictions
You may wonder how scientists predict hurricanes months in advance. Both teams analyze a blend of historical data and current weather conditions. CSU studies factors like ocean temperatures and high-altitude winds from January to March, comparing these with past years exhibiting similar conditions (like 1996 or 2017). They also utilize computer models to project the Atlantic's conditions by summer. NC State employs machine learning, enabling them to identify patterns in complex weather data. While these early April predictions aren't perfect—given the unpredictability, particularly about La Niña—they provide a strong foundation for understanding.
Get Prepared Now
Here’s the critical takeaway: regardless of whether we anticipate 12 storms or 17, it only takes one storm to change your life. Hurricanes can unleash devastating winds, storm surges, and flooding, even far inland (remember Hurricane Helene’s effects in 2024?). Now is the time to take action and prepare:
Stock up: Create an emergency kit filled with food, water, batteries, and first-aid supplies.
Know your zone: Determine if you’re in an evacuation zone and plan your escape routes.
Stay informed: Keep up with trusted sources like the National Hurricane Center for updates.
Protect your home: Consider installing storm shutters or sandbags if you live in a flood-prone area.
Both CSU and NC State will provide updated forecasts in June, July, and August. This means we’ll have a clearer picture of the season as it approaches. For now, their predictions serve as a wake-up call to take hurricanes seriously.
Looking Ahead
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is gearing up to be a busy one. CSU forecasts 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, while NC State estimates 12 to 15 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major hurricanes. With warmer ocean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions setting the stage for an active year, coastal areas such as North Carolina and the broader U.S. coast are certain to feel the effects.
At Weather Champs, we are committed to keeping you informed with easy-to-understand updates as the season unfolds. Stay safe, prepare early, and together we can weather the storm!
