What to Expect for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Weather Champs
May 4
5 min read

As the days get longer and summer approaches, it’s time to turn our attention to the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially kicks off on June 1, 2025. Hurricanes can bring powerful winds, heavy rain, and life-changing impacts to coastal communities and beyond, so knowing what’s coming is a big deal. Two trusted teams of weather experts, one from Colorado State University (CSU) and the other from North Carolina State University (NC State), have just released their early predictions for the 2025 season. Spoiler alert: it’s shaping up to be a busy one!

A Look Back at 2024’s Hurricane Season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was a record-breaker, leaving a trail of destruction across the U.S. It saw 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, making it one of the most active and costly seasons ever. Hurricanes Beryl, Helene, and Milton were the heavy hitters, with Helene alone causing catastrophic flooding in North Carolina and Georgia, and Milton tearing through Florida. According to AccuWeather, the season’s total damage and economic loss in the U.S. reached a staggering $500 billion, factoring in everything from property damage to job losses, crop failures, and long-term recovery costs. This massive price tag, coupled with over 300 deaths, underscores the urgency of preparing for 2025.

A Busier-Than-Usual Season Ahead

Let’s break down what they’re saying in a way that’s easy to understand, so you can start preparing for whatever Mother Nature has in store. Both CSU and NC State agree that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be more active than the average year. To give you a sense of “normal,” the average season (based on data from 1991 to 2020) produces about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (those are the really intense ones, Category 3 or higher, with winds over 111 mph). This year, the forecasts suggest we’ll see more action than that, though the two teams have slightly different takes.

CSU’s Forecast: The folks at CSU, led by hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach, are calling for a season with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. That’s a significant step up from the average, putting 2025 in the “above-average” category. They’re expecting a lot of storm activity, with a measure called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) predicted to be about 25% higher than usual. This means not only more storms but also potentially longer-lasting or stronger ones.

NC State’s Forecast: NC State, with insights from Professor Lian Xie and his team, is a bit more cautious but still expects a lively season. They predict 12 to 15 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major hurricanes. While their numbers are lower than CSU’s, they’re still close to or slightly above the average, suggesting a season that could keep us on our toes. Their forecast uses cool tech like machine learning to make sense of weather patterns, which adds a modern twist to their predictions.

Why So Many Storms?

So, what’s driving this active season? It comes down to a few key ingredients in the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere. First, the ocean is warmer than usual in many areas, especially around the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Warm water is like fuel for hurricanes, helping them form and grow stronger. However, some parts of the eastern Atlantic have cooled off recently due to strong trade winds, which might keep things a bit less wild than last year’s crazy season (2024 saw 18 named storms!).

Another big factor is something called ENSO, which stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Right now, we’re in a weak La Niña phase, which means cooler waters in the Pacific. This setup typically reduces wind shear (disruptive winds that can break up storms) in the Atlantic, making it easier for hurricanes to form. Both CSU and NC State think La Niña will likely fade to a “neutral” state by the peak of the season (August to October), but there’s a chance it could stick around, boosting storm activity even more. The good news? El Niño, which tends to calm things down, is unlikely to show up.

What This Means for You

With CSU predicting 17 named storms and NC State estimating 12 to 15, the odds are high that coastal areas, especially in the U.S. and Caribbean, will feel the impact of at least one storm. CSU says there’s a 51% chance a major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast (compared to a 43% average) and a 56% chance one will track through the Caribbean. NC State highlights North Carolina’s risk, noting a 75% chance the state will see at least one tropical cyclone (a named storm or stronger). Whether you’re in Florida, Louisiana, or the Carolinas, it’s a reminder that it only takes one storm to make a season unforgettable.

How They Make These Predictions

You might be wondering how scientists can predict hurricanes months in advance. Both teams use a mix of historical data and current weather patterns. CSU looks at things like ocean temperatures and high-altitude winds from January to March, comparing them to past years with similar conditions (like 1996 or 2017). They also use computer models to guess what the Atlantic will look like by summer. NC State adds a high-tech spin with machine learning, which helps them spot patterns in complex weather data. While these early April forecasts aren’t perfect—there’s still a lot of uncertainty, especially about whether La Niña will hang on—they give us a solid starting point.

Get Prepared Now

Here’s the most important takeaway: whether we get 12 storms or 17, it only takes one to change your life. Hurricanes can bring devastating winds, storm surges, and flooding, even far inland (remember Hurricane Helene’s impact in 2024?). Now’s the time to make a plan:

Stock up: Build an emergency kit with food, water, batteries, and first-aid supplies.
Know your zone: Check if you’re in an evacuation zone and plan your route.
Stay informed: Follow trusted sources like the National Hurricane Center for updates.
Protect your home: Consider storm shutters or sandbags if you’re in a flood-prone area.

Both CSU and NC State will update their forecasts in June, July, and August, so we’ll get a clearer picture as the season nears. For now, their predictions are a wake-up call to take hurricanes seriously.

Looking Ahead

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be a busy one, with CSU forecasting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, and NC State predicting 12 to 15 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major hurricanes. Warm ocean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions are setting the stage for an active year, especially for places like North Carolina and the broader U.S. coast. At Weather Champs, we’re here to keep you in the loop with easy-to-understand updates as the season unfolds. Stay safe, start preparing, and let’s weather this together!