Two Feet of Rain, 70s in November, and a Wobbly Polar Vortex: Is the Super El Niño Behind It?
By Chris Johnson, CEO & Founder, WeatherChamps · Wednesday, November 4, 2026
Some weeks the weather is background noise. This isn't one of them. In the last 72 hours, parts of Florida's Space Coast picked up close to two feet of rain, New England has been flirting with record highs, a cold front is rumbling through the Carolinas, India took its second severe cyclone in five days, and the stratosphere over the North Pole is doing something nobody has seen this early in the season.
Hanging over all of it is the El Niño everyone keeps calling "super." So let's do two things: run through today's top stories, then dig into the science and ask the honest question: how much of this is El Niño, and how much is just weather?
Today's top weather stories
1. Florida's Space Coast is still draining after a historic deluge
The numbers are wild. In its final storm summary for the event (issued Tuesday night), NOAA's Weather Prediction Center listed preliminary storm totals of 24.69 inches 1.9 miles southeast of Malabar, 22.83 inches north of West Palm Beach, 22.75 inches near Grant-Valkaria and 22.00 inches near Palm Bay, with more than 20 inches across the Melbourne, Palm Bay and Malabar areas since early Sunday. Melbourne recorded 11.51 inches on November 2 alone, its wettest day on record, beating the 10.23 inches it got during Hurricane Irma in 2017. Rainfall in parts of Palm Bay, Malabar and Grant-Valkaria exceeded the threshold for a 1-in-1,000-year event, and an estimated 17 inches fell in about six hours around Palm Beach Gardens.
The impacts were serious: flash flood emergencies, a state of emergency for Brevard and six other counties, closed schools, water rescues, a boil-water notice in part of Palm Bay, and relocated polling places on Election Day. Florida Today reported two deaths. The rain is easing now, but rivers respond slowly. The St. Johns is still rising, and in Southwest Florida the Peace River is forecast to reach major flood stage tonight into Thursday.
Here's what caused it, per weather.com: a slow-moving low over the eastern Gulf and high pressure off the Eastern Seaboard that kept funneling deep tropical moisture into the peninsula. NWS Melbourne's Will Ulrich pointed to energy aloft plus an atmosphere that was "unusually moist" for the time of year.
2. Summer in November for New England and the Northeast
Highs in the 70s have stretched from Detroit to Boston, and today looks like the warmest day of the run. NWS Boston is watching for possible daily records (Boston's November 4 record is 78°F, set in 1987), and NWS New York says a "highly amplified upper level ridge" along the East Coast is keeping temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. NBC Boston points out that if the 70s hold for five straight days, it would be a first in Boston's recorded history. It won't last. A front brings a band of heavy rain Thursday night into Friday, with 2 to 3 inches possible on Long Island and in southeast Connecticut, and November-style air returns by Sunday.
3. A cold front sweeps the Southeast
That same pattern change is hitting the Southeast today. In the Western Carolinas it's a First Alert Weather Day, with heavy rain, gusty winds and a low-end severe threat (including a brief tornado or two) mostly between 2 and 6 p.m. Some spots in the southern mountains could see 3 inches or more. Behind the front: sunshine and highs in the 60s for the weekend.
4. The polar vortex is breaking down weeks ahead of schedule
High above the Arctic, a sudden stratospheric warming is stretching the polar vortex and splitting it into two lobes. NOAA's Laura Ciasto told USA TODAY that it could be the earliest such event since reliable records began in 1958, with the stratospheric winds possibly reversing between November 6 and 10. Does that mean a deep freeze? Not necessarily. Experts say any surface effects would show up weeks later, if they show up at all, and they might land in Europe or Asia rather than the eastern U.S.
5. Around the world: back-to-back cyclones in India, storms and heat in Australia
Cyclone Murasu came ashore near Ongole in Andhra Pradesh on November 3, just five days after Cyclone Arnab. Murasu packed sustained winds around 100 to 110 km/h and brought heavy rain to Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. In Australia, supercell storms raked southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales (with a 106 km/h gust at Wellcamp Airport near Toowoomba). Today the storm risk shifts north, Brisbane is heading toward 35°C on Thursday, and there's a severe heatwave warning for parts of Cape York.
The science: how is the super El Niño connected?
First, what NOAA actually says
Before we connect anything, let's make sure El Niño is really happening. It is. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect. In its most recent ENSO discussion (October 8; the next one comes out November 12), CPC reported monthly Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures at +2.1°C above average, with anomalies above +4°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. It also gave a strong-to-very-strong El Niño better than an 83% chance of lasting through January–March 2027, and put an 83% chance on October–December becoming a "historic event" stronger than any since 1950 (a 3-month value of +2.5°C or more). "Super El Niño" is media shorthand. NOAA's language is "very strong" and "historic." But the event is real, and it's big.
CPC also adds a caveat we should all keep in mind: with an event this strong, "the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed." El Niño changes the odds for a season. It doesn't forecast any one storm.
The teleconnection playbook: a turbocharged subtropical jet
How does warm water in the Pacific end up flooding Florida? The answer is teleconnections. As the eastern Pacific warms, thunderstorms over the ocean shift eastward from Indonesia (CPC notes convection is suppressed there and enhanced from the central to eastern Pacific). That shift rearranges the large-scale jet streams. In a strong El Niño cool season, the classic result is a stronger, more active subtropical jet running across the southern U.S. It carries a train of storm systems and moisture from California and the Desert Southwest to the Gulf Coast and Florida. Meanwhile the northern jet tends to stay farther north, which is why the northern tier usually runs milder.
That's exactly what NOAA's seasonal outlook expects. CPC's November–January outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the northern tier, the West, the Ohio Valley and the mid-Atlantic, and wetter-than-normal conditions from California and the Southwest through the Southern Plains, the Southeast and the East Coast. The strongest wet signal is over Florida and the Southeast. The atmosphere is already reacting: CPC also cites the very active central and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons and the suppressed Atlantic season as signs of El Niño's influence. (The NHC is tracking only a low-odds disturbance near the Bahamas as the season winds down.)
Florida's flood: consistent with El Niño, not attributed to it
This is the part where honesty matters. The Florida flood looks a lot like the "wetter South" footprint of El Niño. But the meteorologists closest to the event describe a specific setup (a stalled Gulf low, a high off the East Coast, and deep tropical moisture), and none of the sources I found includes a formal attribution study. NWS Melbourne talked about El Niño as the reason they expect a wetter, stormier winter, especially December and January, rather than as the cause of this storm. AccuWeather's Dan DePodwin put it well: El Niño "tends to shift the odds toward more heavy rain and severe thunderstorms in Florida, particularly from late fall through winter," but "this does not mean every storm is caused by El Niño." Climate journalist Jeff Berardelli went further on X, arguing the rain was amplified by the super El Niño and a warmer climate. That's a reasonable hypothesis, but it hasn't been tested yet. Bottom line: consistent with the pattern, attribution not established. Weather.com calls it a possible "prelude" to an El Niño winter, and that's about as far as the evidence goes.
The West: a soaked Southwest, and a Pacific Northwest going off script
The textbook says a strong El Niño winter brings a wetter, stormier California and Desert Southwest and a drier Pacific Northwest. It's only early November, and El Niño's grip on the West usually tightens from December through March, so treat this as an early read.
The Southwest is already soaked. Two rounds of heavy rain about 10 days apart (October 23–24 and November 1) swamped the Four Corners. The November 1 round alone dropped 5 to 7 inches on parts of Arizona and Colorado, and 15 river gauges across the region set all-time crest records, per weather.com. In Pagosa Springs, Colorado, the San Juan River crested near 16.8 feet on November 1, its highest level since the record 1911 flood, sweeping a home downstream and tearing away part of the town's history museum. On the plus side, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported widespread drought improvement across the Four Corners, though long-term deficits remain.
Writing just before the November 1 round, climate scientist Daniel Swain said back-to-back extreme rainstorms across the interior Southwest during one of the strongest El Niños on record were "not a coincidence." He pointed to record-warm water off Baja California, a very active East Pacific hurricane season and a strengthened early-season subtropical jet, all much more likely under strong El Niño conditions. That's a strong expert link, but it isn't a formal attribution study.
California: the coast first, the rain next. El Niño is already showing up along the coast. Record-warm ocean water plus an El Niño-driven bulge in sea level pushed Southern California water levels to their highest ever recorded in late October, flooding coastal roads and homes without a major storm. Rain has been more modest, especially in Northern California, but NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows a moderate risk of heavy precipitation from Washington to central California for November 11–15.
The Pacific Northwest isn't reading the script yet. Parts of western Washington and Oregon picked up more than 2 inches of rain in late October, two atmospheric rivers are forecast to arrive Thursday through Sunday, and Scripps' CW3E expects above-normal atmospheric river activity next week. That doesn't mean El Niño is "wrong." The USGS notes that the very strong 1982–83 and 2015–16 events both ran wetter than normal across much of the Northwest.
Bottom line: the Southwest fits the El Niño playbook, California is just getting started, and the Northwest is a wild card.
Northeast warmth: the right direction, but a different driver
A mild East fits NOAA's El Niño-flavored outlook, but the forecasters explaining this week's warmth credit a highly amplified ridge along the East Coast, a short-term weather pattern. One more wrinkle: MIT's Judah Cohen told USA TODAY that the most certain near-term effect of the polar vortex disruption is milder weather in eastern North America for much of November. So several factors point the same way, and no single one can claim credit. Inconclusive.
Polar vortex vs. El Niño: competing, not cooperating (maybe)
Some reporting connects the record-early stratospheric warming to El Niño boosting the atmospheric waves that knock the vortex around. The more careful framing comes from NOAA's Ciasto: the vortex and the very strong El Niño are two players, and "how these two play together or compete" will shape what we feel next month. The Weather Company's Joshua Senechal expects blocking effects to "struggle to offset" El Niño's warm influence in North America, with Europe more likely to feel the impacts. Cohen notes that the 2023–24 El Niño had two SSWs and still produced a very mild eastern U.S. winter. The link is plausible, but the outcome is genuinely uncertain.
India and Australia: El Niño shapes the backdrop, and it's complicated
India's weather chief, IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra, called the back-to-back cyclones a coincidence, with El Niño, warm seas, favorable winds and the Madden-Julian Oscillation all playing a part. Reporting on IMD's view notes that El Niño doesn't necessarily raise Bay of Bengal cyclone counts but can affect where storms form and track. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology says El Niño typically brings drier conditions to eastern Australia in winter and spring, so Queensland's active storm stretch actually cuts against the textbook signal. BoM stresses that ENSO is "only one of several factors," alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and record-warm seas. The heat fits BoM's above-average temperature outlook. The storms are better described as "classic spring weather" (BoM forecaster Harry Clarke's words), even if their frequency has been "notable."
The scorecard
Florida extreme rain: fits El Niño's typical pattern? Yes (wetter South, active subtropical jet). Attribution: Not established; stalled local setup.
Western U.S. (Southwest floods, California, Pacific Northwest): fits El Niño's typical pattern? Southwest and California coast yes; the wet Northwest runs counter. Attribution: Not established; strong expert link for the Southwest floods, too early to judge the rest.
Northeast warmth: fits El Niño's typical pattern? Broadly (milder north/East outlook). Attribution: Inconclusive; amplified ridge.
Polar vortex disruption: fits El Niño's typical pattern? Debated. Attribution: Uncertain; may compete with El Niño.
Bay of Bengal cyclones: fits El Niño's typical pattern? Partially (track/location). Attribution: IMD: coincidence plus multiple factors.
Queensland storms/heat: fits El Niño's typical pattern? Heat yes; storms run counter. Attribution: Multiple drivers (IOD, warm seas).
Why this matters for your forecasts
This is where it gets fun for WeatherChamps players. El Niño is a loaded die, not a script. It tilts the odds (wetter South, milder North), and the best forecasters bake that tilt into their calls without assuming it decides every day. A ridge, a stalled low, or a stretched polar vortex can still win any given week.
So here's your challenge: Boston and New York are about to come down from the 70s, the Peace River is still rising, and the Southeast flips to cool sunshine this weekend. How much rain falls on Long Island Friday? What's Boston's high on Sunday? Open WeatherChamps and make your calls. Our next big test comes November 12, when NOAA updates its El Niño outlook. Use the playbook, and watch out for the curveballs.
— Chris
Sources
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Oct 8, 2026): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
NOAA CPC, Official ENSO Probabilities (issued Oct 2026): https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/probabilities/
NOAA CPC, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks (Oct 15, 2026): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/fxus05.html
NWS Weather Prediction Center, Storm Summary #3, Florida Heavy Rainfall (Nov 3, 2026): https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html
weather.com, "Why record Desert Southwest, Florida rain, flooding happened" (Nov 3, 2026): https://weather.com/2026/11/03/science/weather-explainers/florida-desert-southwest-flooding-recap-el-nino
Florida Today, "NWS explains extreme flooding in Brevard County" (Nov 2, 2026): https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2026/11/02/nws-explains-extreme-flooding-in-brevard-county/92567943007/
Florida Today, "2 reported dead after historic deluge leaves flooding across Brevard" (Nov 3, 2026): https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/local/2026/11/03/clean-up-begins-after-historic-deluge-leaves-flooding-across-brevard-florida-palm-bay-melbourne/92572466007/
WLRN, "Florida's dry season opens under water" (Nov 3, 2026): https://www.wlrn.org/2026-11-03/floridas-dry-season-opens-under-water
Newsweek, "Super El Niño warning emerges after Florida Learjet 60 crash": https://www.newsweek.com/super-el-nino-warning-emerges-after-florida-learjet-60-crash-12650521
WINK News, "Peace River flooding" (Nov 4, 2026): https://www.winknews.com/weather/peace-river-flooding-will-todays-rain-push-waters-higher/article_8be41a21-3845-4f97-8789-7b8f10328c4e.html
NWS Boston Area Forecast Discussion (Nov 3, 2026): https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&site=NWS
NWS New York Area Forecast Discussion (Nov 3, 2026): https://www.weather.gov/zny/afd
NBC Boston, "Record warmth for the first week of November?" (Nov 3, 2026): https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/weather-boston-massachusetts-record-heat-possible/4042315/
FOX Carolina, "First Alert Weather Day" (Nov 4, 2026): https://www.foxcarolina.com/2026/11/04/first-alert-weather-day-heavy-thunderstorms-small-severe-threat-today/
USA TODAY, "The polar vortex is doing something extraordinary" (Nov 3, 2026): https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2026/11/03/polar-vortex-update-november/92559579007/
weather.com, "An early polar vortex? What super El Niño says about it" (Oct 27, 2026): https://weather.com/2026/10/27/forecast/national/polar-vortex-early-season-stretch-super-el-nino-us
ABP Live, "Two Severe Cyclones In Five Days" (Nov 3, 2026): https://news.abplive.com/news/india/two-severe-cyclones-in-five-days-el-nio-warm-seas-fuel-unusual-andhra-weather-1874580
ABC News (Australia), "Warm temperatures to follow supercell storms in south-east Queensland" (Nov 4, 2026): https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-04/qld-weather-southern-storms-ease-as-temperatures-rise/107341660
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Australian Bureau of Meteorology, "El Niño: what it means for Australia's climate": https://www.bom.gov.au/news-and-media/el-nino-what-it-means-for-australias-climate
Durango Herald, "Archuleta County faces lasting challenges after severe flooding" (Nov 3, 2026): https://www.durangoherald.com/articles/news/archuleta-county-faces-lasting-challenges-after-severe-flooding/
U.S. Drought Monitor, National Drought Summary (Oct 27, 2026): https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/services/data/summary/html/usdm_summary_20261027.html
Weather West (Daniel Swain), "Unusual low-latitude storm approaches SoCal... amid still-strengthening El Niño" (Oct 30, 2026): https://weatherwest.com/archives/44160
CW3E (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), AR Outlook (Nov 3, 2026): https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-ar-outlook-3-november-2026/
U.S. Geological Survey, "Regional Super El Niño Impacts: Northwest U.S.": https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/regional-super-el-nino-impacts-northwest-us
X News, "Second Historic Flood Hits Pagosa Springs" (trending story summary, used for story discovery): https://x.com/i/trending/2117479212948890034
X News (trending story summaries, used for story discovery): Cyclone Murasu https://x.com/i/trending/2117118852995711024 · Northeast warmth https://x.com/i/trending/2117685619266555935 · Queensland storms https://x.com/i/trending/2117173728882667857
Related
Weather Layer Epic: Modes are coming to WeatherChamps. We're planning a premium "Mode" area in weather settings that shows one sport at a time, starting with pro football: stadium icons on the map, with game-day weather a tap away. Ideas for future modes include travel and outdoor events. Today's science is the reason we care so much about this. El Niño shifts the seasonal odds and a ridge or a stalled low decides the day, and making a call on that, whether it's kickoff weather or your weekend trip, is exactly what WeatherChamps is built for. Outside of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, WeatherChamps is the only weather app where you make the forecast.
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